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What moved overnight
Thu · 14 May 2026 · 01:27 UTC  ·   ▲ 5 up   ▼ 0 down   drawing from 97 live events   ·   click a card to expand
RussiaChinaBrazilCanadaUSAAustraliaIndiaArgentinaKazakhstanDRCGreenlandMexicoSaudiSudanLibyaPeruS. AfricaColombiaMaliMozambiqueTurkeyMyanmarAfghanistanMoroccoIndonesiaSomaliaSwedenFrancePNGJapanNew ZealandPhilippinesCubaWESTERN HEMISPHERE   |   EASTERN HEMISPHERE
🇨🇳POLITICS▲ 100%
Will Trump visit China by...?
Trump visit China by May 15
POLY 1.00 ▲100%MANIFOLD 0.99 ▲14%
POLY1.00 ▲100%
MANIFOLD0.99 ▲14%
Why Massive 80-point spread between Polymarket's near-zero probability for April 30 deadline versus Manifold's 80% for May visit suggests fundamental disagreement on diplomatic scheduling. Weak consumer sentiment (57) and e…
Search interest for "inflation" spiking +64% above 7-day avg (current: 21/100) — elevated  · Google Trends
Gas at $4.12/gal — elevated, historically correlates with approval declines · FRED: GASREGW
Consumer sentiment at 57 — depressed, below recessionary threshold (60) · FRED: Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
🇺🇸ELECTIONS▲ 89%
Rhode Island Governor Election Winner
The Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026
POLY 0.94 ▲89%
POLY0.94 ▲89%
Why Strong consensus (94%) on Democratic victory in heavily Democratic Rhode Island. Agreement across platforms despite economic headwinds (depressed sentiment, elevated gas prices) suggests fundamentals favor Democrats des…
Consumer sentiment depressed (<60) — spending contraction risk · FRED: Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Search interest for "inflation" spiking +64% above 7-day avg (current: 21/100) — elevated  · Google Trends
Gas at $4.12/gal — elevated, historically correlates with approval declines · FRED: Gas Price (Weekly)
🇺🇸ELECTIONS▲ 86%
Minnesota Governor Election Winner
The Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026
POLY 0.94 ▲86%
POLY0.94 ▲86%
Why Polymarket prices Democrats at 93% for the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial race. The tight agreement across platforms and elevated macro headwinds (depressed consumer sentiment, high gas prices) suggest consensus confidenc…
Consumer sentiment depressed (<60) — spending contraction risk · FRED: Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Search interest for "inflation" spiking +64% above 7-day avg (current: 21/100) — elevated  · Google Trends
Gas at $4.12/gal — elevated, historically correlates with approval declines · FRED: Gas Price (Weekly)
🇺🇸ELECTIONS▲ 68%
LA-02 House Election Winner
Democratic win the House race for LA-02
POLY 0.81 ▲62%KALSHI 0.86 ▲68%
POLY0.81 ▲62%
KALSHI0.86 ▲68%
Why Markets converge at ~19% GOP probability in this Democratic-leaning district, reflecting headwinds from depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices that historically suppress incumbent party performance. The ti…
Consumer sentiment depressed (<60) — spending contraction risk · FRED: Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Search interest for "inflation" spiking +64% above 7-day avg (current: 21/100) — elevated  · Google Trends
Gas at $4.12/gal — elevated, historically correlates with approval declines · FRED: Gas Price (Weekly)
🇺🇸ELECTIONS▲ 60%
Vermont Governor Election Winner
The Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026
POLY 0.79 ▲60%
POLY0.79 ▲60%
Why Polymarket prices Republicans at 74% to win Vermont's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting historically unfavorable conditions for incumbents amid depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices that typically erode…
Consumer sentiment depressed (<60) — spending contraction risk · FRED: Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
Search interest for "inflation" spiking +64% above 7-day avg (current: 21/100) — elevated  · Google Trends
Gas at $4.12/gal — elevated, historically correlates with approval declines · FRED: Gas Price (Weekly)
CONFLICTsince 2023-10
ISRAEL – GAZA
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Duration~1.5 years
Displaced~1.9M in Gaza (~85% of pop)
Reported deaths (Gaza MoH)~50K+
Reported deaths (Israel)~1,700
CONFLICTsince 2022-02
RUSSIA – UKRAINE
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
Duration~4 years
Displaced8M refugees · 5M internal
Estimated military casualties~700K combined
Civilian deaths reported~12K confirmed (UN OHCHR)
CONFLICTsince 2023-04
SUDAN
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Duration~2 years
Displaced~12M (largest displacement crisis globally)
Deaths estimated~150K+
CONFLICTsince 2023-11
YEMEN / RED SEA
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Duration of current escalation~1.5 years
Red Sea traffic drop~50% (Lloyd's List)
Confirmed vessel attacks~140+
CONFLICTsince 2021-02
MYANMAR
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
Duration~5 years (since 2021 coup)
Displaced~3M+
Regions · last 24h
AMERICAS
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